Toys to Retirement #50
Let's get re-introduced
Hello friends,
What better time to re-introduce Toys to Retirement than the first week of the new year?
For those that have been here for awhile, you probably noticed I dropped ‘Weekly Wrap-Up’ from the title. Truth is, our niche can be quiet some weeks, and I didn’t feel good about sending out ‘fluff’ that didn’t really move the needle. After a year of weekly free newsletters, I’ve decided it’s best to provide quality over quantity, and the free edition of Toys to Retirement will be ‘as needed’ (when pertinent stuff worth talking about pops up).
Paid subscribers fret not, articles will still be coming roughly every week or so.
With that being said, let’s chat about some things that have happened recently…
2025 Year in Review
Yesterday I published my favorite article of the year, a review of my business in 2025. Super excited to have crossed $400,000 in net profit for the first time ever, and I truly believe that number can keep growing significantly with the same amount of effort.
You can check out all the details and some fun facts here:
This article is more focused on my personal business, I’ll be doing a ‘State of Toy Investing in 2026’ next week.
Playmates Losing the License to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Probably the biggest news to come out of the toy world in quite some time. Playmates, who has had the TMNT license since the 80’s, will be surrendering it at the end of the year. To understand how big of a deal this is, TMNT merch surpassed ONE BILLION in sales in a single year in 2023. Playmates has played a crucial role in this franchise’s history for decades.
Why does this matter for us?
Because any time a manufacturer loses a license, that means the merch is guaranteed to be discontinued. And with a line as iconic as TMNT, you can bet there will be some SIGNIFICANT investment opportunities.
This was the first year we saw the result of Funko losing the license to Five Nights at Freddy’s and that was undeniably the best brand, alongside Pokemon, to have invested into in 2024 for the 2025 boom.
You know what makes this opportunity even crazier? The billion dollar TMNT boom in 2023 wasn’t an accident - that was the year Mutant Mayhem released in theaters. While it was no Zootopia 2, it definitely drove hype to new levels never before seen for TMNT merch. Guess what happens in 2027…
Mutant Mayhem 2.
I strongly believe that Playmates TMNT merch in 2026, purchased at the right price, can generate INSANE wealth by Q4 2027.
Keep an eye on this toy line guys, it will inevitably be clearanced and is worth keeping some in the toy portfolio.
Nintendo Ramping Up Pokemon Production
Millennium Print Group, the manufacturer behind Pokemon and other TCGs, will be leasing over ONE MILLION additional square feet for production. Most of this will be new construction and is slated to be done by 2027.
While it won’t have an impact on supply immediately, you can imagine how significant this is for the franchise, likely to be ready right after the 30th anniversary concludes.
It’s hard to say what this means for the future of Pokemon investing. Yes, Pokemon always goes up in price once discontinued, but we’ve never seen these levels of production before. What happens if the market downturns? Will this make for longer hold times? Will product become too available and lower hype? Does this mean that vintage sealed or even modern from the Sword and Shield era are the most optimal investments right now?
Lots of questions to be answered, but the fundamentals haven’t changed - discontinued Pokemon increases in price and is always a 401(k) type play, anything sooner than 5-10 years is just gravy.
2026 LEGO Retirement List
The 2026 LEGO Retirement List can be found here, just click the ‘Sorted by Retirement Date’ tab.
We have a record number of sets retiring in the summer, actually pretty exciting. I haven’t had time to dive into the full list yet, but expect a video from me soon on the very early LEGO analysis for 2026.
If you’re unsure if something is retired already, you can download the official LEGO Builder app on your phone and search any set number. Click on the set you want, and if it’s retired, it’ll state it in a big red bar below the title.
CPC Concerns in 2026
Still looming over our heads, still no concrete answers, but what I can tell you is this.
I have over 1,000 toy listings on Amazon - I have 0 CPC requests.
I have close to 1,000 toy listings on Walmart - I have 81 requests. HOWEVER, most of these requests are for items involving batteries or items where the listing was clearly made by another third party seller and Walmart hasn’t sold it.
This is sort of what I’d expect. Private label and exclusive type items where the platform hasn’t sold the item themselves are likely the highest risk.
With that being said, I don’t know for sure what the future holds for either platform, but I do not see them nuking their entire toy catalogs due to these CPC requests.
I had a call with some WFS folk today and I’ve been advised that they’re still internally discussing things around this topic, and even they are unsure if additional CPC requests will roll out or if what has been requested is all that will be requested. Will keep you guys updated as I learn more…
Impressive year, excited to see your 2026 insights on TMNT, Pokémon, and LEGO retirements!
Do you know of anyway to get around a Target ban online?