How Do You Know When a Toy Is Discontinued?

The question I get asked the most, answered.

“How Do You Know When a Toy Is Discontinued?”

Since I started the Toys to Retirement newsletter about a month ago, this is the most common question I’ve received in my DMs.

Rightfully so. It’s one of the first questions you should be asking whenever you intend to make a toy investment.

I’m going to give you an answer you probably don’t want to hear.

Most of the time, it’s speculation.

Unless you have direct confirmation from the manufacturer (like how LEGO confirms their sets are discontinuing and/or discontinued on their site and the LEGO Builder App) — the best we can do is speculate.

As toy investors, one of our “superpowers” is being able to identify clues and signals that something is being discontinued so that we can buy it while others aren’t even paying attention to it.

In this article we’re going to take an in-depth look at this question while also taking it a step further. Truth is, being discontinued is only part of the battle in toy investing. Something can be discontinued but Amazon can still have enough supply to last years. Sometimes, even our competitors can have enough stock to do the same.

So not only do we want a toy to have ceased production, but we also want to make sure that the remaining supply post-discontinuation is ‘reasonable’ compared to the demand. We’re going to touch on that and the signs to look for so we don’t get stuck with discontinued toys that end up being duds.

As we go through the examples below, consider each one a ‘clue’.

Our goal is to compile as many clues as possible and build an overwhelming case that something is discontinued. The more clues we have, the better chance something is being discontinued.

Lastly, just remember that no system is perfect. Again, this is speculation. Educated speculation, but speculation nonetheless. Things are constantly evolving and unfortunately we are at the mercy of the manufacturers and have to do the best we can with the information we can uncover.

Truthfully, this is my favorite part of toy investing. Making enough money for a tropical vacation on a single SKU is nice, but predicting a grand slam performance a year ahead of time when no one else was talking about it sometimes feels even better.

Let’s dive into how we can figure out a toy is discontinued/discontinuing.

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Manufacturer Confirmation

The best way to tell if a toy is discontinued/discontinuing is manufacturer confirmation.

As mentioned above, companies like LEGO even have a ‘Retiring Soon’ section on their website (although it’s not all-inclusive). There is also an unofficial retiring list (usually 90%+ accurate), and then once discontinued the sets update to ‘Retired’ in the LEGO Builder App. That’s why LEGO is the most accessible form of toy investing — much of the speculation is removed from the game.

For other companies, you can always try contacting the manufacturer through their Contact Us portal or on social media, but rarely should you expect a response.

Most manufacturers simply don’t offer this this data, and to uncover it can take a little more work.

NOTE: Manufacturers can change their mind about discontinuing a product at any time. While confirming with them is the best confirmation you can get, their desire to increase profits will always come before them keeping their word that something is discontinued. Also keep in mind that ‘discontinued’ can be a loose definition. Sometimes items get ‘discontinued’ until the next holiday, but some manufacturers still consider it ‘discontinued’ even though it’s just temporary. Sometimes manufacturers will even discontinue a toy, take that same exact toy and put it in new packaging with a new UPC, and consider the previous SKU discontinued.

This turned out to be a lie. Can’t trust anyone these days, can you?

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Manufacturer Confirmation Through a Distributor

The next best thing you can do is get in touch with your primary distributor. If you aren’t already relationship building with a rep at a major distributor, you need to start getting your butt in the game. They have a direct contact to the manufacturer and their buyers can usually offer some great insights that are useful when making buying decisions. Whether a product is discontinued or not is not some secret they hide from you, just ask and they can tell you what it’s marked as in their system. Don’t be annoying though. If you never buy product from them, you shouldn’t expect them to do you favors and answer your call every week to just keep asking if stuff is discontinued.

There are some small issues with confirming through a distributor though, which is why it’s never quite as good as confirmation from the manufacturer themselves:

1. Distributors can get information on if something is discontinued once it’s too late for us to buy.

2. Distributors can often think something is not discontinued because they simply haven’t heard from the distributor yet and incorrectly list it as available for Pre-Order.

3. Manufacturers can change their mind and have no obligation to tell the distributors right away

4. Manufacturers can change their mind and have no obligation to tell the distributors at all, and simply run re-prints for a different retailer/distributor.

Yes, I have experienced all of these.

That’s why when a distributor tells me that something is discontinued in their system, I take it as a clue — not gospel.

You also don’t always need to be contacting your rep to get this info. Some distributors have specific verbiage they use on their sites when a product is discontinued such as ‘Sold Out’ or even just simply ‘Discontinued’. Other times, they simply remove the product from their site completely. Familiarize yourself with your primary distributor’s site so you can look for these clues.